Janssen, Annette B.G. ; Janse, Jan H. ; Beusen, Arthur H.W. ; Chang, Manqi ; Harrison, John A. ; Huttunen, Inese ; Kong, Xiangzhen ; Rost, Jasmijn ; Teurlincx, Sven ; Troost, Tineke A. ; Wijk, Dianneke van; Mooij, Wolf M. (2019).

Algal blooms increasingly threaten lake and reservoir water quality at the global scale, caused by ongoing climate change and nutrient loading. To anticipate these algal blooms, models to project future algal blooms worldwide are required. Here we present the state-of-the-art in algal projection modelling and explore the requirements of an ideal algal projection model. Based on this, we identify current challenges and opportunities for such model development. Since most building blocks are present, we foresee that algal projection models for any lake on earth can be developed in the near future. Finally, we think that algal bloom projection models at a global scale will provide a valuable contribution to global policymaking, in particular with respect to SDG 6 (clean water and sanitation).

Highlights

• Reaching SDG 6 requires algal projection models applicable at a global scale.
• There are currently no algal projection models similar to the ideal model.
• Scientific challenges relate to spatial scales, data availability and uncertainty.
• Recent developments provide opportunities for further development.
• Global algal projection models will be highly relevant to global policymaking.

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